Fondamenti di Cambiamenti Climatici e Gestione dei Rischi Idro-meteorologici

Knowledge and understanding

The course aims to provide students with fundamental knowledge of the functioning of the climate system, the causes and evidence of climate change, the hydrological cycle, and the main extreme hydro-meteorological phenomena.

At the end of the course, students will be able to understand:

·       the main physical processes governing the climate system and the hydrological cycle;

·       the distinction between natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change;

·       the main observed evidence of climate change and its causes;

·       the concepts of climate forcing and feedback;

·       the fundamental principles of climate modelling and the meaning of climate projections;

·       climate scenarios and the main frameworks used for their definition (RCPs and SSPs);

·       the principles of climate change governance;

·       the concepts of hazard, exposure, vulnerability, risk, resilience, and adaptive capacity;

·       the main hydro-meteorological risks, with particular reference to extreme precipitation, floods, droughts, water scarcity, heat waves, and rainfall-induced landslides;

·       the effects of climate change on the hydrological cycle and on the frequency and intensity of extreme events;

·       the fundamental principles of climate change mitigation and adaptation;

·       the main structural and non-structural approaches to hydro-meteorological risk management and reduction.

Applying knowledge and understanding

At the end of the course, students will be able to:

·       analyse and interpret time series of climatic and hydrological variables;

·       identify and quantify trends and variations in the main climatic variables;

·       critically interpret climate scenarios and projections;

·       use simple indicators to characterize climatic and hydrological extremes;

·       apply basic methods for the statistical analysis of extreme events;

·       characterize drought events using appropriate indices and indicators;

·       compare different management, mitigation, and adaptation strategies;

Making judgements

Students will be able to critically interpret observed data, model results, and climate projections, taking into account the associated uncertainties.

They will also be able to make independent assessments of the evolution of hydro-meteorological risks under climate change conditions and to critically compare different management and adaptation strategies, assessing their effectiveness, robustness, limitations, and possible unintended effects.

These skills will be developed through the analysis and discussion of case studies, exercises, and applied problems.

Communication skills

Students will acquire the ability to correctly use technical terminology related to climate change and hydro-meteorological risk management and to clearly communicate the results of quantitative analyses and risk assessments.

They will also be able to present climate and hydro-meteorological issues and the related adaptation strategies.

Learning skills

Students will acquire the methodological tools required to independently explore topics related to climate change, extreme hydro-meteorological events, and risk management.

They will be able to critically consult scientific literature, technical reports, and international documentation, as well as independently update their knowledge in a field characterized by rapid scientific and methodological development.

The course comprises a total of 93 teaching hours, organized as follows:

Teacher-led instruction (DE): 70 hours, including lectures and guided exercises aimed at acquiring theoretical and methodological knowledge related to climate change, the analysis of hydro-meteorological events, and risk assessment and management.

Interactive teaching (DI): 23 hours, including applied exercises, analysis and discussion of case studies, interpretation of climatic and hydrological data, and assessment of climate change scenarios and adaptation strategies.

Interactive activities will be aimed in particular at developing the ability to apply acquired knowledge, independent judgement, and the ability to critically interpret data and model results.

During the course, seminars on specific topics may also be organized and delivered by experts and researchers in the field.

If the course is delivered in blended or remote mode, the necessary changes to the arrangements described above may be introduced in order to ensure compliance with the programme set out in this syllabus.

Basic knowledge of mathematics, physics, and basic hydraulics is important, with particular reference to:

·       differential and integral calculus;

·       fundamental principles of fluid mechanics.

No specific prior knowledge of climatology or climate modelling is required.

Attendance is not mandatory but is strongly recommended.

Regular participation in lectures, exercises, and interactive activities enables a better understanding of the connections between theoretical foundations, quantitative analysis of hydro-meteorological phenomena, and applications to risk assessment and management.

For students who do not attend classes, the instructor will provide guidance on the material required to prepare for the examination.

Introduction to the hydrological cycle

Components of the hydrological cycle - Precipitation - Evaporation and evapotranspiration - Surface runoff - Water balance in a region - Distribution of water resources on Earth - Mean annual water balance of Sicily - Anthropogenic effects on the hydrological cycle.

Climate system and fundamentals of climatology

Difference between weather and climate. Difference between climate variability and climate change. Fundamentals of system dynamics: definition of a system, stocks and flows, positive and negative feedbacks, lags. Earth's climate system: components and connections. Atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, geosphere, and anthroposphere. Energy flows and Earth's energy budget. Greenhouse effect. Climate controls.

Climate change: causes and evidence

Definition of climate change. Climate variability and climate change. Natural and anthropogenic forcings. Greenhouse gases and radiative balance. Climate feedbacks. Observed evidence of climate change. Changes in temperature, precipitation, the cryosphere, and mean sea level. Detection and attribution. Observed changes in climate extremes. Main findings of IPCC reports. Climate change governance.

ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS

Statistical methods based on the analysis of historical time series. Mann-Kendall non-parametric test. Sen's slope estimator. Global climate models. Regional climate models. Future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects. Representative Concentration Pathways. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.

Statistical analysis of extreme hydro-meteorological events

Precipitation formation mechanisms. Basic statistical characterization of extreme precipitation. Frequency and return period. Intensity-Duration-Frequency/Depth-Duration-Frequency curves (IDF/DDF). Characterization of river basins. Analysis and assessment of river floods. Drought analysis.

Fundamentals of climate and hydro-meteorological risk

Concepts of hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and risk. Resilience and adaptive capacity. Risk assessment frameworks. Qualitative and quantitative risk assessment. Risk management. Structural and non-structural measures.

1. IPCC, Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press.
2. IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press.
3. IPCC, Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report.
4. BURCH, Sarah L.; HARRIS, Sara E. Understanding climate change: science, policy, and practice. University of Toronto Press, 2021.
5. Dispense, slide, articoli scientifici e altro materiale didattico fornito dal docente attraverso la piattaforma Teams.

Learning outcomes are assessed through an oral examination aimed at verifying achievement of the learning outcomes expected from the course.

The oral examination generally includes three questions concerning the main thematic areas of the course:

1.     fundamentals of climate change, observations, models, and scenarios;

2.     hydro-meteorological processes and events and methods for hazard and risk assessment;

3.     risk management, climate change adaptation, and resilience.

During the oral examination, students may also be asked to discuss a simple applied problem, a graph, a dataset, or a climate scenario, in order to assess their ability to apply the knowledge acquired and to critically interpret the results.

The assessment will take into account knowledge and understanding of the topics, the ability to apply the concepts learned, analytical and synthesis skills, the ability to establish connections among the different parts of the programme, independent judgement, and appropriate use of technical terminology.

The final grade is expressed on a 30-point scale. In particular:

·       fail: insufficient knowledge of the fundamental topics and inability to apply basic concepts;

·       18-21: sufficient knowledge of the main topics, with limited analytical and application skills;

·       22-25: satisfactory knowledge of the topics and ability to correctly apply the main methods;

·       26-28: good knowledge of the contents, good analytical skills, ability to establish connections, and good application skills;

·       29-30: in-depth knowledge, ability to critically integrate the different topics and to independently address applied problems;

·       30 with honours: excellent and in-depth knowledge, a high degree of independent judgement, and excellent analytical, synthesis, and communication skills.

The assessment of learning outcomes may also be carried out online, should circumstances require it.

To ensure equal opportunities and in compliance with current legislation, interested students may request an individual meeting in order to arrange any compensatory and/or dispensatory measures, according to the learning objectives and their specific needs. Students may also contact the CInAP representative of their Department.

1.     Describe the main components of the climate system and explain the Earth's global energy balance.

2.     What is the difference between climate variability and climate change?

3.     Explain the role of greenhouse gases and the main climate feedbacks.

4.     Describe the main observed evidence of climate change.

5.     Explain the differences between RCPs and SSPs and their use in climate projections.

6.     What are the main sources of uncertainty in climate projections?

7.     Explain the differences among hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and risk.

8.     Describe how climate change can affect extreme precipitation and flood risk.

9.     Define the return period and discuss its interpretation under non-stationary conditions.

10.  Describe the main types of drought and the characteristics of the SPI and SPEI indices.

11.  What is the difference between drought and water scarcity?

12.  What is meant by flash drought?

13.  Discuss the differences between climate change mitigation and adaptation.

14.  Explain the concept of an adaptation pathway and discuss its usefulness in managing climate uncertainty.